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Area Forecast Discussion (glossary)
FXUS65 KREV 041505 CCA
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
252 AM PDT FRI JUL 4 2008
.SHORT TERM...
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE ACROSS NWRN US TODAY WILL BRING SEVERAL DEGREES
OF COOLING TO THE REGION WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO REACH 90 IN THE
RENO-SPARKS REGION...ALMOST 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE RECORD HOT
JULY 4TH JUST ONE YEAR AGO. BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING OVER THE
REGION THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EWD TO CNTRL NV BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH SOME LEE SIDE GUSTS
OF 30-35 MPH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. FOR AREA LAKES...THE
DURATION OF THESE WINDS IS LIKELY TO BE INSUFFICIENT FOR LAKE WIND
ADVISORY CONDITIONS. LOCALLY CHOPPY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
THE EAST SHORES OF THE MAIN LAKES.
WHILE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY DUSK AROUND THE TAHOE BASIN...WINDS
WILL BE SLOW TO DROP OFF IN THE LEE SIDE AREAS INCLUDING RENO-SPARKS
AND CARSON CITY THIS EVENING. FREQUENT WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 10 PM THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH...BUT
SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS ABOVE 20 MPH STILL LIKELY BETWEEN 10 AND 11
PM.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
IS EXPECTED AS 500 MB HEIGHTS AND 700 MB TEMPS RISE WITH RIDGE
BUILDING OFF THE WEST COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LATE DAY LEE
SIDE ZEPHYR BREEZES ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE WITHIN
LIGHT ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL BRUSH ACROSS THE NWRN US SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE NORTH ZONES AND
A MORE NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR EXPECTED SMOKE AND HAZE
CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHICH IS CONTINGENT ON EXISTING
ERN CA FIRES FLARING UP AGAIN AND NO NEW LARGE FIRE STARTS. MJD
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PERSIST IN DEVELOPING RATHER STRONG RIDGE OVER
THE REGION BY EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH RECORD OR NEAR
RECORD TEMPS LIKELY BY AT LEAST TUE/WED TIME FRAME. GFS IS STILL
TRYING TO BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN A BIT FASTER THAN ECMWF BY LATE THURS
WITH TEMPS 4 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY. GFS DOES HAVE
SUPPORT FROM SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BY ANOMALIES STILL SUGGEST TEMPS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THURS. SO WILL SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASE IN TEMPS
BUT NOT AS MUCH AS MEX GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST FOR THURS. IF
OPERATIONAL GFS IS CORRECT THERE WOULD BE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE AT
CONVECTION ON THURS BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THIS OUT AS ECMWF AND ITS
SUPPORTING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO NOT AGREE WITH THIS POSSIBILITY. NO
CONVECTION NOTED IN EARLIER PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED EITHER. OVERALL
MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO GOING EXTENDED FORECAST. MLF
.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES SHOULD RISE A BIT TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS TODAY
VERSUS THURSDAY. APPROACHING TROF WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS DURING
THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY APPROACHING 30 MPH OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS...
BUT AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 35 MPH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THINK
WITH RH VALUES RISING A BIT AND STRONGEST WINDS NOT LIKELY UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THAT COMBINATION OF LOW RH AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL LAST FOR ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD AND COVERAGE WILL NOT BE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY MENTION OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WILL
HEADLINE THE GUSTY CONDITIONS IN FIRE WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
FEW LOCATIONS WILL SEE THESE CONDITIONS FOR LONGER THAN 3 HOURS.
EARLIER SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THE BULK OF THE SMOKE COVERAGE
WAS NORTH OF I-80. WITH WINDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST
CURRENT THINKING IS SMOKE COVERAGE WILL REMAIN GENERALLY NORTH OF
I-80 THROUGH THE DAY WITH SMOKE SHIFT TO THE SOUTH IN THE EVENING
AS WINDS BECOME A BIT MORE WESTERLY. MLF
.AVIATION...
GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH KRNO
LIKELY RECEIVING GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KTS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
TIME AROUND 00Z. ALL SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE AS SMOKE
BEGINS TO SPILL BACK INTO THE TAHOE BASIN AND KRNO REGION AFTER
00Z. MLF
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS ACROSS NEVADA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK RANGE FROM THE UPPER 90S
TO 102-105. IN NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S...WITH AREAS IN DESERT AREAS
OF NORTHEAST CA IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN QUITE WARM AS WELL. LOWS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE MID
60S IN WRN NV EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL
THREATEN SOME MAXIMUM LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS AS WELL.
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
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