National Weather Service notices: Special Weather Statement February 1: Black Rock playa conditions: very wet southern playa, snow on the northern playas High Rock Canyon is now closed to vehicles (February 1st, until early May.) Expect temperature to drop at night, and make sure to pack extra coats and blankets if you are traveling through sparse areas. Beware of carbon monoxide poisoning from running the heat in a standing car for too long, or from propane appliances. Call Friends for up-to-date information. We are located right off the Playa and are in touch with whats going on out here. 775.557.2900 info@blackrockdesert.org MODIS imagery viewer Gerlach Monthly Climate Summary 1/1948 thru 4/2007 BM Gerlach: station: temp, wind, barometer, DW1623 Bryan Dongray's Weather at Gerlach Weather Underground: Gerlach National Weather Service: Gerlach, Vya, Truckee, soaring National Weather Service radar: Reno University of Utah MesoWest: Surface Weather Map Road Conditions: Nevada (map), CalTrans, Oregon Black Rock Desert "Clear Sky Chart": link Satellite: visible, infrared, watervapor Earthquake: UNR helicorder, NBE; USGS map Sunrise/Sunset: pdf looking south-east from Hualapai Valley (refresh / animate) looking north-east from Gerlach (refresh / animate)

NWS   refresh / animate wiki    refresh  /  animate January 2010:   01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 February 2010:   01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 Handy Links Playa Wiki Playa hazards

 Area Forecast Discussion (glossary)
 
 FXUS65 KREV 090455 AAA
 AFDREV
 
 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
 855 PM PST MON FEB 8 2010
 
 .UPDATE...
 NO UPDATES PLANNED. INITIAL BAND OF SNOW MOVING ONTO THE WEST
 SLOPES OF THE SIERRA AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST
 OVERNIGHT. PERHAPS UP TO AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION WITH
 IT...GREATEST IN THE SIERRA NEAR THE CREST.
 
 PARENT UPPER LOW WILL THEN DIG SOUTHEAST OFF THE COAST AND 00Z
 MODELS ARE TRENDING EVEN FURTHER WEST. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE WAY
 TO GO LOOKING AT WV IMAGERY. AS A RESULT...COLDEST TEMPS LOOK TO
 STAY WEST OF THE AREA AND INSTABILITY MAY NOT BE THAT GREAT. SNOW
 LEVELS MAY BRIEFLY RISE TO 5000 FEET WITH THIS FURTHER WEST TRACK
 TUE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE QUITE
 LIGHT WITH ONLY 5-10 KTS AT 700 MB. THUS...THE EAST UPSLOPE EVENT
 HIGHLIGHTED BELOW LOOKS LESS LIKELY ALTHOUGH COULD STILL SQUEEZE
 OUT A COUPLE INCHES OR SO. AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE EVEN MORE LOCALIZED
 THAN BEFORE SO MORE AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE LITTLE ACCUMULATION WITH
 A FEW OTHERS COULD PICK UP A QUICK 2-3 INCHES IF THEY GET UNDER
 HEAVIER SHOWERS.
 
 WHILE I BELIEVE THE CURRENT PUBLISHED FORECAST IS A BIT
 AGGRESSIVE...IT IS NOT THAT FAR OUT OF WHACK EITHER. PLENTY OF
 UNCERTAINTY WAS MENTIONED...AND RIGHT NOW THERE IS A MUCH HIGHER
 PROBABILITY THAT THE SNOW RECEIVED WILL BE LESS THAN FCST. WILL
 NOT CHANGE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND LET MID SHIFT MAKE FINAL CALL
 FOR TOMORROW. WALLMANN
 
 
 .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM PST MON FEB 8 2010/ 
 
 SHORT TERM - / TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY / ...
 
 MAIN ISSUE FOR THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS IS THE COLD LOW DROPPING SOUTH
 ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. TRACK OF THE LOW WILL KEEP MOST OF
 THE SHOWERS WEST OF THE SIERRA. HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN
 MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND A LOW TO MID LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL
 BRING SHOWERS TO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH TUESDAY
 NIGHT.
 
 MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
 SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND NORTHWEST
 NEVADA AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO VALLEY
 FLOORS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...SO MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
 WILL BE SNOW.
 
 THE BEST INSTABILITY DOES NOT REACH THE RENO-TAHOE AREA UNTIL
 TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE EVENT...IT IS
 DIFFICULT TO PLACE WHERE SHOWERS/SNOW BANDS WILL BE HEAVIEST. DO
 NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE RENO-CARSON
 AREA...SO IMPACTS TO THE MORNING COMMUTE ARE MINIMAL AT THIS
 TIME. HOWEVER LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY SNOW SHOWERS COULD RECEIVE AN
 INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
 
 CONCERNS INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING AS SEVERAL
 FACTORS COINCIDE. A BIT OF SURFACE WARMING WILL INCREASE
 INSTABILITY AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE LOW AND THE COLDEST AIR
 ALOFT PASSES OVER THE EASTERN SIERRA. MODELS DROP THE LIFTED
 INDEX TO -1...WITH 100-200 J/KG OF CAPE THROUGH THE MOIST UNSTABLE
 LAYER OVER THE EASTERN SIERRA AND FAR WESTERN NEVADA. BY THIS
 TIME THE LOW IS SOUTH OF MONTEREY BAY...TURNING THE LOW AND MID
 LEVEL FLOW TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. THIS PRODUCES A FAVORABLE
 ENVIRONMENT FOR AN UPSLOPE EVENT ALONG THE EAST SLOPES SOUTH OF
 US-50. LOCATIONS THAT COULD RECEIVE A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
 SNOW ARE...DOUGLAS...SOUTHERN LYON...WESTERN MINERAL...ALPINE AND
 MONO COUNTIES. DEPENDING ON THE LENGTH OF THE UPSLOPE EVENT
 AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR ALPINE AND
 MONO COUNTIES.
 
 SHORT WAVE RIDGE PASSES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
 THURSDAY FOR DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD WARM SEVERAL
 DEGREES WITH RIDGE AXIS OVER WESTERN NEVADA AND A LIGHT SOUTH TO
 SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NORTH OF
 US-50 AS THE NEXT PACIFIC WAVE NEARS THE COAST. LIGHT WARM AIR
 ADVECTION RAIN/SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR LASSEN AND NORTHERN WASHOE
 COUNTIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BRONG
 
 LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT - MONDAY)...
 
 BASED ON THE 5-DAY MEAN 500MB HEIGHTS FROM GFS/EC, OVERALL PATTERN 
 DURING THE LONG TERM IS CHARACTERIZED BY A STRONG JET OVER THE 
 CENTRAL PACIFIC WITH DOWNSTREAM DIRTY RIDGE OVER WRN NOAM. 
 OCCASIONAL WEAK SYSTEMS WILL STILL AFFECT THE REGION, BUT NOTHING 
 MAJOR. TELECONNECTIONS WITH NEGATIVE ANOMALY OVER CNTRL ALEUTIANS 
 SUGGEST SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL PRECIP IN NRN SIERRA. CONFIDENCE LEVELS 
 IN THE LONG TERM RANGE FROM HIGH (4/5) EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO 
 LOW/MODERATE (2/5) BY MONDAY...AS NCEP RMOP PRODUCTS SHOW A LOW 
 PREDICTABILITY PATTERN DEVELOPING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO MAJOR 
 ANOMALIES TO LATCH ONTO.
 
 WEAK UPPER TROF EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THURS NGT INTO 
 FRIDAY, WITH DIFFERENCES IN LATITUDINAL POSN OF THE LOW. MUCH OF THE 
 PRECIP WOULD LIKELY FALL THURS NGT IN THE SIERRA, MAINLY N OF TVL 
 PER GEFS. SPILLOVER UNCERTAIN THOUGH RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE WOULD 
 SUGGEST AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS INTO WRN NV. EXPECTING SNOW LEVELS TO 
 FALL TO ROUGHLY 5000-5500 FT BASED ON SOUNDINGS AND 700MB TEMPS. 
 RIDGING FCST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA SAT/SUN WITH RAPIDLY WARMING 
 TEMPS, ESPECIALLY AT RIDGE TOP LEVELS. SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY 
 TRANQUIL WEEKEND WITH GOOD TRAVEL CONDITIONS. EC AND GFS BRING A 
 WEAKER SYSTEM INTO THE REGION MON. QPF VALUES ARE QUITE LOW AND GEFS 
 POPS ARE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT. WOULD BE INCLINED TO DECREASE ONGOING 
 CHC POPS, HOWEVER LOWER PREDICTABILITY ENVIRONMENT AND TIMING 
 DIFFERENCES PRECLUDE MAKING CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
 
 CS
 
 AVIATION...
 
 COLD UNSTABLE SYSTEM FCST TO DROP INTO CA/NV TUESDAY AND TUESDAY 
 NIGHT. PRIMARY AVIATION IMPACT WILL BE FROM SNOW AND REDUCED 
 CIGS/VSBYS. WINDS ARE NOT A CONCERN. PRECIP WILL BE MORE SHOWERY 
 WITH THE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE, THEREFORE IT WILL BE HARD TO PREDICT 
 EXACT TIMING OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS MORE THAN A FEW HOURS OUT. ALSO, 
 SLIGHT CHANGES IN THE PATH OF THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT 
 ON PRECIP COVERAGE OVER THE SIERRA AND WRN NV. 
 
 THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS TODAY IS ONLY MODERATE (3/5) AND I 
 HAVE KEPT THEM RATHER GENERAL WITH NO TEMPO GROUPS. LIKELIHOOD OF 
 SEEING PERIODS OF LIFR CONDS IN +SHSN IS ABOUT 25% AT RNO AND 70% AT 
 TVL/TRK BETWEEN ROUGHLY 09Z/09 AND 00Z/10. SNOW MAY IMPACT THE 
 TUESDAY MORNING DEPARTURES OUT OF RNO.
 
 CS
 
 
 .REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 NV...NONE.
 CA...NONE.